Net Zero Navigator 2026
Expert decarbonisation predictions for the year ahead
2026 Decarbonisation Predictions
Contributors
Dr Rhian-Mari Thomas OBE
CEO, Green Finance Institute
Parth Mehta
Director, Head of Plan Zero Consulting
Jeremy Powell
Head of Projects Centre of Excellence
Alex Avila
Managing Director, Consulting and Energy Solutions
Gary Sucharewycz
Strategic Development Director
Geoff Smith
Director of Managed Water Services
Foreword
In 2026, market economics will prove more powerful than political noise in driving decarbonisation.
Dr Rhian-Mari Thomas OBE CEO, Green Finance Institute
While political rhetoric around net zero has grown more uncertain, market momentum continues to accelerate. This disconnect between what we hear and what’s actually happening creates both confusion and opportunity for organisations navigating the transition.
Make no mistake: the market is now running ahead of politics on net zero. Solar and battery costs continue their rapid decline. Renewable capacity deployment remains robust. Investment banks still commit capital to clean energy projects, even while retreating from high-profile climate coalitions. These aren’t ideological choices. They’re economic realities. The technology has become too competitive, and the business case too compelling, to ignore.
Fundamental reframing
For organisations, this means a fundamental reframing is underway. What began as a compliance-driven agenda has evolved into an economic transition. This brings benefits including cost efficiency and operational resilience. Decisions made because they support your core business strategy are much easier than those made merely to tick boxes.
The challenges documented in this year’s Net Zero Navigator are real, among them grid connection queues, skills shortages and the withdrawal of certain grant funding streams. But the signal beneath the noise remains clear – net zero initiatives are here to stay. And though public funding is reducing, the Government continues to support decarbonisation by creating the right conditions to attract private capital.
New approach to decarb funding
The National Wealth Fund exemplifies this new approach to financing decarbonisation. Its £28 billion fund to invest in clean energy and growth industries isn’t just about generating Government returns. Rather it’s about attracting multiples of that sum from private investors into clean energy, green infrastructure and carbon reduction projects.
Economics are the reality
I hope you find the predictions and insights in Mitie’s Net Zero Navigator useful for your own decarbonisation strategy. Remember that in 2026, organisations can’t retreat into wait-and-see mode. The most likely long-term scenario hasn’t changed. Oil demand will peak within the decade. Clean technology that reduces environmental impact and supports sustainability will continue getting cheaper. The organisations that maintain strategic focus will be best positioned when the political cycle inevitably turns.
The economics are the reality. Everything else is noise.
"Retreating into wait-and-see mode is far more fraught with risk than leaning into the decarbonisation agenda."
1. Compliance
Focus on energy performance will intensify significantly – and some will get caught out.
Parth Mehta Director, Head of Plan Zero Consulting
Commercial buildings are expected to have to reach Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) C by 2028 and EPC B by 2030. While we’re still awaiting the Government’s final consultation response, the direction is clear – tighter enforcement, shorter validity periods and a well-defined path to EPC B ratings. Essentially they are modern new-build standards for ALL commercially let buildings. The work for most private landlords and organisations starts now.
If you do one thing this year, the priority is knowing your true baseline, site by site. That’s because the immediate risk isn’t future thresholds, it’s what happens when old ratings are retested under updated methods. Many assets previously rated as safe and compliant will no longer be such, potentially creating a huge headache for organisations.
Better-performing buildings
The reason for such big changes to EPCs is to make the certifications more relevant, frequent and useful. Shorter certificate cycles make out-of-date ratings visible sooner, which improves corporate sustainability disclosures and keeps environmental sustainability claims honest.
The intention is to identify actions owners should take, not just a grade. This means buyers, lenders and occupiers can see issues at a glance. Enforcement is expected to toughen up, ending the era of low-cost, low-value assessments. The goal is better-performing buildings.
“Many assets previously rated as ‘safe’ will no longer be such, potentially creating a huge headache and costs for organisations.”
With just over two years to the first deadline, organisations should adopt a three-phase approach:
- Identify, fast. Run a portfolio health check and refresh EPCs where they’re old or potentially invalid to base your sustainability strategies in current data. Use analytics to reveal shortcomings and sketch out costs and necessary interventions, turning uncertainty into a structured plan.
- Develop investment-grade cases. For priority sites, turn the EPC findings into clear business cases that support ESG reporting and your decarbonisation plan. Think fabric, heat, lighting, controls and on-site generation. Each should have cost, ROI and delivery risks laid out. Fabric and heat often pay back more slowly, so blend in low or no-cost wins to lift the overall case.
- Implement at two speeds. Start quick wins now while you design the bigger projects. For each building, decide whether to upgrade to meet new compliance, claim an exemption based on the new rules, get rid of it, or re-let/repurpose. Schedule works alongside operational and decarbonisation plans so you don’t spend on assets you’ll likely get rid of.
This isn’t about reporting differently; it’s about acting decisively. Ultimately, compliance is a catalyst for improvement.
Key takeaway
Energy performance standards are being revised to make sure official certification is useful and valid. In 2026, the win is to re-baseline, then act, aligning with your decarbonisation strategy.
Democratising your carbon data will be key to achieving net zero
2025 brought the first reporting wave under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). In-scope EU companies had to collect, govern and report sustainability data, making ‘carbon data for all’ an imperative.
In parallel, the World Bank-backed Climate Action Data Trust launched an open-source, blockchain-based registry to create auditable carbon market records. And the Partnership for Carbon Transparency promoted a model whereby suppliers share reliable footprint data, each contributor adds their own emissions, and the result flows to customers.
In short: democratised, auditable carbon data is indeed becoming a strategic and regulatory imperative.
One third of senior sustainability managers say they need help with technology for data and reporting to make sure buildings are compliant.*
The facts
80% of commercial buildings throughout England score below an EPC B rating
Just 2% of commercial buildings have an EPC A rating in seven major UK cities – London, Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle
12.1 m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) – The total greenhouse gas emissions for commercial buildings in the UK in 2023
2. Energy
Switched-on organisations will reap the benefits of on-site battery storage.
Jeremy Powell Head of Projects Centre of Excellence
In April 2025, Ofgem approved major grid connection reforms. This shifted from ‘first come, first served’ to prioritising projects based on readiness and their contribution to net zero. This change, a vital part of the UK Net Zero Strategy, will accelerate clean energy projects, improving grid efficiency and security of supply. It will also drive investment into the transmission network that runs the length and breadth of the UK, which will filter into the regional distributed networks.
These reforms will open up new commercial opportunities for local participation in the energy system. In time, organisations with locally generated, locally stored power will be able to enter agreements with distributed network operators to sell energy from their batteries back to the grid.
Compelling business case
Of course, businesses have long been generating their own clean power by installing solar panels on roofs, adjacent land, or, more recently, solar carports. What’s different here is the storage element.
There is now a compelling business case for investing in on-site battery storage. Photovoltaic systems paired with battery storage can typically achieve payback within five to eight years. However, returns are dependent on factors such as project scale, system complexity and each building’s energy usage profile.
On the one hand, on-site battery storage will enable companies to store and use clean energy when renewables aren’t generating, enhancing progress against ESG targets.
On the other, it provides an effective way to offset the price hikes the energy market remains vulnerable to. This means greater stability for operational costs. And given that economies of scale continue to drive battery prices down, the opportunity will only become more attractive.
“Battery storage provides stability to operational costs – it’s one less business problem to deal with.”
Sell back to grid
These are enough reasons to start building the business case. But with recent schemes such as the National Energy System Operator’s Demand Flexibility Service, it’s clear the decarbonisation market is moving towards a more interactive model. Take dynamic pricing, for example. Organisations will soon be able to resell clean power back to the grid during periods of peak demand, creating new revenue streams and enhancing grid resilience.
This year we’ll see smart organisations getting ahead of the curve by laying the foundations for this opportunity. To get started, I suggest the following …
Engage stakeholders within your organisation: Include leadership, facilities teams and financial decision-makers to secure buy-in.
Review and research organisations that have invested in renewable technologies: In doing so, you can identify renewable energy technologies that would be of interest to your organisation.
Instruct an expert partner to conduct a feasibility study: This will help understand potential cost savings, design options, the payback period and sustainability benefits.
Key takeaway
Forward-thinking organisations will go beyond localised energy generation and start investing in localised storage. This enables use of clean energy when renewable generation is lacking and also a return from power being sold to the grid.
Future-facing organisations will move towards 24/7 carbon-free energy
The concept of 24/7 carbon-free energy moved from niche ambition to mainstream in 2025.
We’re not just seeing one-off pilot schemes. There are 24/7 Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) products on the market and new platforms making contracts easier. That’s in addition to grid and policy professionals exploring hourly matching, whereby renewable energy can be traced back to the moment it was created. There’s also an accreditation process that certifies issuers across countries. This combination of offers, buyers, standards and accreditation means significant progress in 24/7 carbon-free energy.
49% of senior sustainability managers plan to invest in on-site battery energy storage in 2026.*
The facts
The UK’s operational battery capacity is set to rise from approximately 6.3 GW today to around 27GW by 2030 – an increase of ~330%
£24bn – The amount Ofgem provisionally approved for upgrading Britain’s energy networks
738 Gigawatts – The current energy connections queue in the UK, which far exceeds the 200 – 225GW of clean generation capacity required by 2030
3. Strategy
Net zero momentum will withstand the headwinds.
Alex Avila Managing Director, Consulting and Energy Solutions
Net zero momentum has faced strong headwinds – political uncertainty, economic pressures and supply chain disruptions. Yet, organisations are not stepping back; instead, they are repositioning their efforts. Crucially, momentum is strongest where decarbonisation is linked to value creation and robust business cases, not just climate ambition.
A recent report from the World Economic Forum highlights that the global green economy has reached multi-trillion-dollar scale. Green revenues are outpacing other long-established sectors, while investment in climate adaptation is now exceeding $1 trillion annually. For UK organisations, this signals that net zero is not only an environmental commitment but a major commercial opportunity. By aligning strategies with these global trends, UK organisations can attract investment, drive innovation and build resilience – ensuring they remain competitive as the market rapidly evolves.
Organisations recognise that delaying action on net zero delivery only increases long-term reputational, financial or operational risk.
Despite the headwinds mentioned, UK organisations are largely continuing with net zero plans – even if they’re adjusting how they position their efforts. The narrative has shifted from carbon reduction for its own sake to include energy resilience, efficiency, climate adaptation and wider ESG priorities.
While some headlines have recently pointed to slowing investment in net zero, the reality is different. Organisations recognise that delaying action on net zero delivery only increases long-term reputational, financial or operational risk.
Challenges ahead
Skills shortages are among the major challenges ahead. There are only 4,000 qualified heat pump installers in the UK, against a need for 150,000. The gap threatens to slow progress, especially as heating across all sectors accounts for approximately one third of the UK’s total emissions. Decarbonising and electrifying heat in commercial and public buildings is therefore essential for meeting net zero targets, making development of these skills an urgent strategic priority.
Meanwhile grid connection bottlenecks are another issue. The current queue for grid connection requests totals around 700-800 gigawatts – these projects require the approximate energy taken to power the UK annually 20 times over.
Although funding exists, there’s a persistent mismatch between available capital and viable projects. The recently published Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan aims to address some of these barriers. After two false starts, this iteration provides detailed breakdowns for different sectors, quantified emissions reductions and clearer compliance expectations. It emphasises actionable solutions, doubles the clean energy workforce target to 100,000 by 2030 and frames net zero as an opportunity for economic growth.
To maintain momentum, organisations need:
- Targeted financing for decarbonisation goals: Access to innovative funding models and green finance that directly support investment in low-carbon technologies and infrastructure.
- Digital tools to support delivery: Adaption of advanced digital platforms, data analytics and AI to model roadmaps, optimise energy use, track emissions and enable transparent reporting.
- Accelerated skills programmes: Rapid expansion of training and upskilling initiatives to build the workforce needed for large-scale deployment of green technologies, such as heat pumps, high-voltage (HV) infrastructure, electrical works and renewable energy systems.
Success in 2026 will again depend on embracing a holistic view, recognising that net zero strategy is no longer purely about carbon and climate. It’s about building resilient, adaptive organisations that create value while decarbonising.
Key takeaway
Despite mounting challenges, organisations are adapting their approach to keep decarbonisation progress on track with net zero targets.
Savvy sustainability stakeholders will approach decarbonisation holistically
The past year has seen a clear shift: organisations are moving beyond quick wins to comprehensive decarbonisation solutions. The Science Based Targets Initiative’s latest Corporate Net-Zero Standard and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative’s (VCMI) Scope 3 Action Code of Practice are tightening expectations and setting new guardrails for credible action. In the UK, transition plans are being mandated for major firms, reinforcing the need for long-term, integrated strategies. Therefore, focus has indeed shifted to holistic decarbonisation plans.
Almost half (49%) of senior sustainability managers say upfront costs are the main barrier to delivering their organisation’s decarbonisation plans.*
The facts
UK GHG emissions have more than halved vs 1990
54.5% – The share of electricity generation from renewable sources during Q2 2025 – a new record
30% of construction professionals say knowledge gaps and lack of skills are impacting ability to reduce embodied carbon emissions
4. Legislation and funding
Shifting legislation will bring challenges – and opportunities.
Gary Sucharewycz Strategic Development Director
The Government is currently reviewing the use of private sector finance for the public sector to support infrastructure and decarbonisation across estates. Through this, I expect they will be reviewing different structures and potential for off balance sheet solutions.
In June 2025, the Government confirmed no further investment would be made in the Public Sector Decarbonisation Scheme (PSDS). Added to that, the Low Carbon Skills Fund (LCSF) is receiving no new allocations for the 2025/26 financial year, despite provision for up to £15m for successful applicants in 2024/25. These programmes were instrumental in supporting public sector emissions reductions, funding everything from solar rollouts in schools to heat decarbonisation planning.
Given that 45% of large organisations cite lack of available financing as their primary barrier to net zero action, this timing is particularly challenging. But here’s what many don’t realise: while grant routes have narrowed, an ecosystem of private finance solutions exists.
Private sector funding models have evolved significantly, particularly as energy prices have made the economics more compelling. A range of solutions are available:
- Asset finance: Offered by High Street banks for renewable technologies, infrastructure upgrades and EV charging. Loan repayments are typically offset by savings. Suitable for projects from £10,000 to several million pounds.
- Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): Investors fully fund wind or solar projects, then sell generated power back at a discounted rate. Increasingly popular across multi-site operations. Funding for technology and infrastructure to enable renewable projects can also be included.
- Tax incentives: These allow decarbonisation investment costs to offset corporation tax.
- Project finance: Structured finance for complex, multi-technology programmes over £10m.
“Private finance partnerships are becoming a primary mechanism for funding, not simply an alternative to grants.”
The smart approach
While there’s no one-size playbook for making the most of these private partnerships, there are some key considerations.
- Successful partnerships start with strategy, not finance. Understand what’s achievable across your estate first – both the full scope of a carbon reduction plan (use the UK Government’s CRP framework as guidance) and renewable deployment.
- De-risking before engaging funders is vital. Address grid connection applications, conduct structural surveys, assess electrical infrastructure and gather comprehensive energy data. Many ageing estates lack readily available schematics or consumption data. Addressing these gaps dramatically improves funding terms.
- Evaluate where to focus your own capital for maximum return, then identify gaps where external funding unlocks additional impact. The goal isn’t to fund everything externally. Instead, combine internal investment with investment from partners from the private sector that accelerates progress.
The 2025 Autumn Budget gave mixed signals for decarbonisation funding. The Government committed additional investment to EV charging infrastructure. It also relaxed planning laws to make it easier to install charging points. However, it’s unclear if a mandate for organisations to install solar panels over their carparks will go ahead.
It’s important to note that public funding hasn’t completely dried up. Pockets of local authority funding remain (Greater Manchester’s retrofit fund, for example). Also, central Government solar and heat programmes for hospitals and schools continue through Great British Energy.
But the broader shift is clear: private finance partnerships are becoming a primary mechanism for funding, not simply an alternative to grants. Organisations that understand this will maintain momentum.
Key takeaway
Public sector funding is changing, but private finance partnerships offer a path forward.
Don't wait: Smart organisations will get ahead of Government plans by making tactical improvements now
Last year’s advice was clear: while Labour’s green energy ambitions signalled progress, organisations shouldn’t wait for slow-moving Government infrastructure and policy changes. Instead, focus on tactical improvements you can control: upgrading energy systems, optimising existing assets and creating self-sufficiency through on-site generation and storage.
That message didn’t just ring true – it remains valid today. Despite funding landscape shifts, the fundamentals haven’t changed. Understanding your estate’s potential and acting strategically delivers results regardless of what policy does next. Waiting for Government support means missing opportunities that exist right now through private finance partnerships.
of senior sustainability managers have found it more challenging to access funds for decarbonisation in the last 12 months.*
The facts
£50bn+ – The amount of private investment announced for clean energy industries since July 2024
The private sector is expected to provide between 65% and 90% of the nearly £40bn needed annually to meet the UK’s 2030 clean power target
£180 million has been allocated for approximately 200 schools and 200 NHS sites to install solar panels
5. Water
New water targets and costs will make waves for many organisations.
Geoff Smith Director of Managed Water Services
Water has been somewhat forgotten in sustainability strategies. But 2026 is the year water moves quickly up organisations’ to-do lists.
Back in April 2025, non-household water bills across the UK increased by an average of 42%. The reason? Decades of underinvestment in ageing infrastructure has left the UK with a water system that loses over 20% of treated water to leakage before it reaches consumers. An increase on the bottom line means water is becoming impossible to ignore.
Yet since the water market opened in 2017, only around 26% of non-household customers have made the switch to another supplier. Many organisations don’t realise they can change or that better pricing and service exist. As costs rise and regulation tightens, that passive approach becomes increasingly expensive.
The water regulator Ofwat’s £104 billion Asset Management Period 8 funding package (from 2025 – 2030) is designed to overhaul the sector and address pollution controls. This is considerably more than AMP7’s £59 billion and has to be paid for somehow. Bills are the solution.
The bigger picture emerging
Beyond immediate cost pressures, the UK faces a projected water shortage of 5 billion litres daily by 2055. Climate change is reducing rainfall and making it more torrential when it does occur. This means less absorption and lower water tables, resulting in sharper flood risk when it rains, but less groundwater to draw on in dry periods. This puts greater strain on infrastructure and the ecosystem. Meanwhile, as part of the UK Net Zero Strategy, Government targets require commercial water use to reduce by 9% by 2038 and 15% by 2050, from 2019/20 baselines.
The Cunliffe Review, published in 2025, called for reform of water regulation. While its full implementation will take years, the direction is clear:
- Consolidation of disparate regulators into a single, more powerful body
- Tighter enforcement on pollution and abstraction (extraction)
- Greater accountability for water companies
- Increased focus on environmental outcomes
“The UK faces a projected water shortage of approximately 5 billion litres daily by 2055.”
Actions worth taking now
Organisations can still act now to manage rising costs and prepare for tighter regulation.
Take a whole-business view: Undertake a strategic and operational review of your entire water footprint. That includes how it is sourced, used, lost and discharged. This provides a single picture of demand, reveals hidden inefficiencies and opportunities, and makes sure every intervention supports long-term resilience, compliance and lower cost.
Smart metering adoption: Programmes like AMP8 ramped up from 2025 across water companies, with many plans running through 2030–35. Being an early adopter means you’ll gain visibility into consumption, which is the first step to reduction.
Treatment at source: This is particularly relevant if you’re involved in manufacturing, food production or chemical-intensive operations. Treating effluent before discharge reduces pollution impact and potential penalties.
Efficiency measures: Simple changes in your operational practices, like reducing chemical use in lab environments or implementing water-efficient processes, will deliver cumulative impact.
Strategic procurement: Understand your water supply chain and work with retailers who prioritise efficiency.
Water now requires the same strategic thinking applied to electricity and gas – before legislation forces it and while options remain flexible.
Key takeaway
Challenging new legislation, rising costs and looming scarcity mean water will require the same focus as other utilities, such as gas and electricity.
Wise organisations will use the latest technology to safeguard against extreme climate events
Climate resilience technology did take off in 2025. Early-warning pilots and wider specialist forecasting services from the Met Office grew. Mobile emergency alerts also scaled during extreme events. And globally, there were advances in fast, high-resolution climate forecasting. Tech-enabled resilience has also become more widespread. This includes use of sensors, AI risk tools and parametric insurance data, which prompts payouts when specific, measurable events occur e.g. wind speeds reach 100mph.
One in 12 senior sustainability managers (8%) are unaware of water reduction targets.*
The facts
Wholesale water charges will increase by an average of 36% over the next five years
The Environment Agency projects a 5 billion litres/day public water shortfall by 2055 without faster action
The top consuming 1% of business retail water supply points use over 50% of market water
* Source: Mitie-commissioned survey of 100 respondents at senior manager level and above with responsibility for sustainability in companies of 1000+ employees.
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